ABSTRACT

So far nuclear-armed states failed to create a global security framework that could improve global security and reduce the role of nuclear threat in relations between nuclear-armed states. All nine nuclear-armed states are engaged in nuclear weapons development and modernization aiming at diversity, precision, rapid mobilization and survivability, thereby increasing the probability of swift crisis escalation between nuclear-armed adversaries endangering the security of entire international community. Amid this weapons development and modernization, lack of and weak lines of communication between nuclear-armed adversaries during crises is crucial to work on as this could bring the world perilously close to sailing directly into the headwinds of nuclear war. The importance of building and maintaining communication between nuclear-armed states during crises is indisputable. Hence, building an information flow via a backup hotline among supreme nuclear commanders based on agreed standard operating procedures (SOPs) for its operation could serve to reduce nuclear risk should it ever be needed. This hotline will socialize nuclear commanders and national leaders to be ready to: 1) disentangle communication during crises from domestic political pressures by practicing agreed SOPs of hotline before a crisis occurs, 2) build confidence among nuclear-armed states – and the international system in general – that the means to control escalation exists, even if the political will is lagging, and 3) open opportunities for nuclear-armed states to broaden their discussion from the specifics of a nuclear hotline to the need to develop new norms that cover the entire nuclear command-and- control system.

摘要

迄今为止，核武国家未能建立一个可以改善全球安全并减少核威胁在核武国家之间关系中的作用的全球安全框架。所有九个核武国家都致力于核武器的发展和现代化，旨在实现多样性，精度，快速动员和生存能力，从而增加了核武对手之间迅速升级危机的可能性，危及整个国际社会的安全。在武器开发和现代化的过程中，在危机期间核武对手之间缺乏沟通和沟通渠道薄弱至关重要，因为这可能使世界危险地接近直接驶入核战争的不利境地。在危机期间建立和维持核武国家之间的沟通的重要性是无可争辩的。因此，根据商定的标准操作程序（SOP），通过备用核指挥官之间的备用热线建立信息流，可以在需要时降低核风险。该热线将使核指挥官和国家领导人社交，以准备：1）在危机发生时，通过在危机发生之前实践商定的热线标准操作程序，从国内政治压力中解脱沟通； 2）在核武国家之间以及国际体系中建立信任总的来说，即使政治意愿落后，也存在控制升级的手段，