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Site-specific deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Diba-Oman and Diba-Al-Emirates
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2021-05-06 , DOI: 10.1007/s12517-021-07137-9
Issa El-Hussain , Zaid Al-Habsi , Khalid Al Bloushi , Rachid Omira , Ahmed Deif , Maria Ana Baptista , Adel M. E. Mohamad

Destructive tsunamis were reported in the Oman Sea after large earthquakes. The Northern Sultanate of Oman and United Arab Emirates (UAE) were subjected to two confirmed tsunamis on 27 November 1945, caused by an Mw 8.1 earthquake in Makran subduction zone, and on 24 September 2013 following the Mw 7.7 Baluchistan earthquake. In this study, deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments are performed for the coasts of Diba-Oman and Diba-UAE, which are located on the western coast of the Oman Sea. The tsunami risk of these coasts increases due to the construction of many infrastructures and urban concentration in these localities. The study focuses on earthquake-induced tsunamis, thus requiring the estimation of the maximum credible earthquake. The generation area is the Makran subduction zone, which is divided herein into EMSZ (East Makran subduction zone) and WMSZ (West Makran subduction zone). The maximum credible earthquakes of Mw 8.8 for the EMSZ and Mw 7.2 for the WMSZ are utilized as specific scenarios for the deterministic approach. The Mw 8.8 EMSZ scenario results in a maximum tsunami inundation distance of more than 300 m. Maximum inundation distance larger than 300 m occurs due to the Mw 7.2 western MSZ scenario. For these scenarios, numerical simulations show a maximum flow depth exceeding 1.75 m. The probabilistic hazard assessment utilizes the logic tree approach to estimate the probability of exceedance of 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0 m wave height in 100 and 500 years exposure times. This analysis indicates that the likelihood that a maximum wave height exceeds 0.5 m ranges from 10 to 40% in 100 years and from 30 to 80% in 500 years.



中文翻译:

针对Diba-Aman和Diba-Al-Emirates的针对特定地点的确定性和概率性海啸危害评估

大地震发生后,阿曼海域发生了破坏性海啸。阿曼北部苏丹国和阿拉伯联合酋长国(UAE)分别在1945年11月27日和2011年9月24日在Bal路支7.7级地震后遭受了两次海啸,这是由Makran俯冲带的8.1级地震引起的。在这项研究中,对位于阿曼海西海岸的Diba-Aman和Diba-UAE海岸进行了确定性和概率性海啸危害评估。由于许多基础设施的建设和这些地区的城市集中,这些海岸的海啸风险增加。该研究集中于地震引起的海啸,因此需要估计最大可信地震。发电区是Makran俯冲带,它在这里分为EMSZ(东Makran俯冲带)和WMSZ(西Makran俯冲带)。EMSZ的最大可信地震Mw为8.8 Mw,WMSZ的最大地震7.2 Mw被用作确定性方法的特定方案。Mw 8.8 EMSZ情景导致的最大海啸淹没距离超过300 m。由于Mw 7.2西部MSZ情景,最大淹没距离大于300 m。对于这些情况,数值模拟显示最大流动深度超过1.75 m。概率危险评估利用逻辑树方法来估计在100年和500年的暴露时间内超过0.25、0.5、0.75和1.0 m的波高的概率。该分析表明最大波高超过0的可能性。

更新日期:2021-05-07
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