ABSTRACT

A corporate appetite for greenhouse gas reduction from nature-based solutions, in general, and REDD+, in particular, is driving a rapidly growing voluntary carbon market. The interest to invest in solutions that avoid or reduce deforestation holds the potential to significantly support national efforts to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. However, controversy over leakage coupled with confusion and insufficient understanding of spill-over and displacement effects risk holding back necessary investments. This article seeks to shed light on different concepts surrounding leakage, including underlying dynamics and possible solutions on how to address them. In doing so, it makes the case for integrating avoided deforestation projects into national REDD+ strategies and highlights the need for a multi-level and multi-actor approach towards REDD+. Leakage occurs at all levels of implementation of REDD+ activities, at the project, programme and policy level, and both within and beyond national boundaries. Local leakage can largely be controlled through project design that analyses and addresses the proximate causes of leakage and underlying drivers, however, leakage is more difficult to avoid at the programme or policy level. Market leakage is particularly complex and harder to manage, but can – to a certain extent – be modelled and accounted for. Successful REDD+ efforts will combine demand-side measures with national or jurisdictional programmes that support governance reforms and integrate local investments in nature-based solutions and avoided deforestation projects.

Key policy insights

• Emissions leakage is a ubiquitous phenomenon in climate mitigation that occurs at all levels of implementation. However, it is of particular concern in the case of REDD+, where reduced deforestation in one geographical area can lead to an increase in forest loss in another area.

• Leakage has to be managed and monitored at different scales: locally through avoided deforestation projects that address local drivers of deforestation; nationally through well-designed REDD+ policies; and internationally, among others, through demand-side standards in countries importing forest-risk commodities.

• Larger-scale programmes that link government interventions with efforts to eliminate deforestation from commodity supply chains, conservation efforts and avoided deforestation projects can limit leakage while helping to integrate various conservation and financing strategies.

• ‘Nesting’ of avoided deforestation projects into larger REDD+ programmes, at sub-national or national scale, allows for the integration of greenhouse gas accounting across different scales of implementation.

摘要

企业对从基于自然的解决方案中减少温室气体的需求，尤其是 REDD+，正在推动快速增长的自愿碳市场。投资于避免或减少森林砍伐的解决方案的兴趣有可能极大地支持国家实现《巴黎协定》温度目标的努力。然而，关于泄漏的争议加上对溢出和置换效应的混淆和理解不足，可能会阻碍必要的投资。本文旨在阐明围绕泄漏的不同概念，包括潜在的动态和有关如何解决这些问题的可能解决方案。在这样做，它为将避免毁林项目纳入国家 REDD+ 战略提供了理由，并强调了对 REDD+ 采取多层次和多参与者方法的必要性。泄漏发生在 REDD+ 活动的各个实施层面、项目、计划和政策层面，以及国界内外。局部泄漏可以通过分析和解决泄漏的近因和潜在驱动因素的项目设计在很大程度上得到控制，但是，泄漏在计划或政策层面更难避免。市场泄漏特别复杂且难以管理，但在一定程度上可以建模和解释。

关键政策见解

• 排放泄漏是气候减缓中普遍存在的现象，发生在各个实施层面。然而，在 REDD+ 的情况下尤其令人担忧，其中一个地理区域的森林砍伐减少可能导致另一个区域的森林损失增加。

• 泄漏必须在不同的规模上进行管理和监测：在当地通过避免森林砍伐项目，解决当地森林砍伐的驱动因素；通过精心设计的 REDD+ 政策在全国范围内推广；在国际上，除其他外，通过进口森林风险商品的国家的需求方标准。

• 将政府干预与从商品供应链中消除森林砍伐的努力、保护工作和避免森林砍伐项目联系起来的更大规模的计划可以限制泄漏，同时有助于整合各种保护和融资战略。

• 在次国家或国家范围内，将避免的森林砍伐项目“嵌套”到更大的 REDD+ 计划中，从而可以将温室气体核算整合到不同的实施规模中。