Marine capture fishery resources are declining, and demand for them is rising. These trends are suspected to incite conflict, but their effects have not been quantitatively examined. We applied a multi-model ensemble approach to a global database of international fishery conflicts between 1974 and 2016 to test the supply-induced scarcity hypothesis (diminishing supplies of fishery resources increase fisheries conflict), the demand-induced scarcity hypothesis (rising demand for fishery resources increases fisheries conflict), and three alternative political and economic hypotheses. While no single indicator was able to fully explain international conflict over fishery resources, we found a positive relationship between increased conflict over fishery resources and higher levels of per capita GDP for the period 1975–1996. For the period 1997–2016, we found evidence supporting the demand-induced scarcity hypothesis, and the notion that an increase in supply of fishery resources is linked to an increase in conflict occurrence. By identifying significant predictors of international fisheries conflict, our analysis provides useful information for policy approaches for conflict anticipation and management.

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确定国际渔业冲突的预测因素

海洋捕捞渔业资源正在减少，而对它们的需求却在上升。这些趋势被怀疑会煽动冲突，但尚未对其影响进行定量研究。我们将多模型集成方法应用于 1974 年至 2016 年间国际渔业冲突的全球数据库，以检验供应引起的稀缺假设（渔业资源供应减少增加渔业冲突）、需求引起的稀缺假设（渔业需求增加）资源增加了渔业冲突），以及三种可选的政治和经济假设。虽然没有单一指标能够完全解释国际渔业资源冲突，但我们发现 1975-1996 年期间渔业资源冲突加剧与人均 GDP 水平提高之间存在正相关关系。1997-2016 年期间，我们发现了支持需求引起的稀缺假设的证据，以及渔业资源供应增加与冲突发生率增加有关的观点。通过确定国际渔业冲突的重要预测因素，我们的分析为冲突预测和管理的政策方法提供了有用的信息。