This paper proposes a model of occupational choice with heterogeneous agents in terms of human capital to quantify the role of offshoring and computerization in labor market polarization and increased top income inequality. We find that both offshoring and computerization played a major role regarding labor market polarization in the US over the period 1975–2008. We further show that the last decades can be decomposed into two subperiods. Computerization is the main driver of labor market polarization from 1975 to the mid 1990s, after which globalization (through decreased costs of offshoring) explains more than 70% of job and wage polarization. Our model can also explain around 40% of the observed increase in top income inequality since 1975.

本文提出了一种基于人力资本的具有异质代理人的职业选择模型，以量化离岸和计算机化在劳动力市场两极化和增加的最高收入不平等中的作用。我们发现，在1975年至2008年期间，离岸外包和计算机化在美国劳动力市场两极化方面都起着重要作用。我们进一步表明，过去的几十年可以分解为两个子时期。从1975年到1990年代中期，计算机化是劳动力市场两极分化的主要驱动力，在此之后，全球化（通过降低离岸外包成本）解释了超过70％的工作和工资两极分化。自1975年以来，我们的模型还可以解释大约40％的最高收入不平等现象。