This paper provides a historical review and critique of stochastic generating models for hydrological observables, from early generation of monthly discharge series, through flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation, to current weather generators. There are a number of issues that arise in such models, from uncertainties in the observational data on which such models must be based, to the potential persistence effects in hydroclimatic systems, the proper representation of tail behaviour in the underlying distributions, and the interpretation of future scenarios.

中文翻译：

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为水文模型生成随机观测值的问题

本文提供了对水文观测的随机生成模型的历史回顾和批评，从每月排放序列的早期生成，到通过连续模拟的洪水频率估计，再到当前的天气生成器。在此类模型中出现了许多问题，从此类模型必须基于的观测数据的不确定性，到水文气候系统中潜在的持久性影响，基础分布中尾部行为的正确表示，以及对未来的情景。