E-fuels promise to replace fossil fuels with renewable electricity without the demand-side transformations required for a direct electrification. However, e-fuels’ versatility is counterbalanced by their fragile climate effectiveness, high costs and uncertain availability. E-fuel mitigation costs are €800–1,200 per tCO₂. Large-scale deployment could reduce costs to €20–270 per tCO₂ until 2050, yet it is unlikely that e-fuels will become cheap and abundant early enough. Neglecting demand-side transformations threatens to lock in a fossil-fuel dependency if e-fuels fall short of expectations. Sensible climate policy supports e-fuel deployment while hedging against the risk of their unavailability at large scale. Policies should be guided by a ‘merit order of end uses’ that prioritizes hydrogen and e-fuels for sectors that are inaccessible to direct electrification.

电子燃料有望用可再生电力替代化石燃料，而无需直接电气化所需的需求侧转换。但是，电子燃料的多功能性因其脆弱的气候有效性，高成本和不确定的可用性而受到抵消。减少电子燃料的成本为每tCO ₂ 800到1200欧元。大规模部署可以将成本降低至每tCO ₂ 20-270欧元₂直到2050年，电子燃料都不可能足够早地变得廉价和丰富。如果电子燃料达不到预期，则忽视需求方的转型可能会锁定对化石燃料的依赖。明智的气候政策支持电子燃料的部署，同时规避了大规模使用电子燃料的风险。政策应以“最终用途的优劣次序”为指导，该优先次序将氢和电子燃料优先用于那些无法直接电气化的部门。