A probabilistic sustainability design method for quantifying the benefits from sustainable structural strategies under climate change is put forward in this study. To help curb the vicious circle of increasing structural and environmental degradation, the sustainable probability is defined as a conditional probability, and the interaction between structural reliability and environmental impacts is quantified. Global warming potential (GWP) is adopted as the key indicator for environmental impacts. By analyzing the trends of climate change, the GWP limit is set to match the prediction of structural resistance degradation. A new environmental impact allocation rule based on time-dependent resistance is put forward to characterize the environmental benefits of the reuse strategy. With help of the durability life prediction method for reusable components and the stochastic model for time-dependent resistance, the calculation method for sustainable probability is established, catering for both reusable and non-reusable structural components. With the Monte Carlo simulation, the proposed sustainability design process is implemented in a numerical example. Results show that the reusable structural concrete component design can simultaneously satisfy the current and future safety and environmental requirements, meeting the demand for sustainable development.

本研究提出了一种概率可持续性设计方法，用于量化气候变化下可持续结构战略的收益。为了遏制结构和环境恶化加剧的恶性循环，将可持续概率定义为条件概率，并对结构可靠性与环境影响之间的相互作用进行量化。全球变暖潜能值（GWP）被用作环境影响的关键指标。通过分析气候变化趋势，设定了GWP极限以与结构阻力退化的预测相匹配。提出了一种基于时间依赖性的新的环境影响分配规则，以表征再利用策略的环境效益。借助可重复使用组件的耐久性寿命预测方法和随时间变化的阻力的随机模型，建立了可持续概率的计算方法，以适应可重复使用和不可重复使用的结构组件。通过蒙特卡洛模拟，在一个数值示例中实现了所建议的可持续性设计过程。结果表明，可重复使用的结构混凝土构件设计可以同时满足当前和未来的安全与环境要求，满足可持续发展的需求。拟议的可持续性设计过程在一个数字示例中得以实现。结果表明，可重复使用的结构混凝土构件设计可以同时满足当前和未来的安全与环境要求，满足可持续发展的需求。拟议的可持续性设计过程在一个数字示例中得以实现。结果表明，可重复使用的结构混凝土构件设计可以同时满足当前和未来的安全与环境要求，满足可持续发展的需求。