Concerns over the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to trade restrictions by major rice exporters, contributing to an average 25% increase in Thai and Vietnamese rice export prices between December 2019 and March–September 2020. This article assesses the consequences of these rice price increases in Papua New Guinea (PNG), where 99% of rice is imported. Utilizing data from a PNG 2018 rural household survey along with earlier national household survey data, we examine rice consumption patterns in PNG and estimate demand parameters for urban and rural households. Model simulations indicate that a 25% rise in the world price of rice would reduce total rice consumption in PNG by 14% and reduce rice consumption of the poor (bottom 40% of total household expenditure distribution) by 15%. Including the effects of a possible 12% decrease in household incomes because of the COVID-19 related economic slowdown, rice consumption of the urban and rural poor fall by 20% and 17%, respectively. Maintaining functioning domestic supply chains of key staple goods is critical to mitigating the effects of global rice price increases, allowing urban households to increase their consumption of locally produced staples.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 引起的收入和大米价格冲击对巴布亚新几内亚家庭福利的影响：家庭模型估计

对 COVID-19 大流行潜在影响的担忧导致主要大米出口国采取贸易限制措施，导致 2019 年 12 月至 2020 年 3 月至 2020 年 9 月期间泰国和越南大米出口价格平均上涨 25%。本文评估了巴布亚新几内亚 (PNG) 的大米价格上涨，那里 99% 的大米是进口的。利用 PNG 2018 年农村住户调查的数据以及较早的全国住户调查数据，我们检查了 PNG 的大米消费模式，并估计了城市和农村家庭的需求参数。模型模拟表明，世界大米价格上涨 25% 将使巴新的大米总消费量减少 14%，贫困人口（家庭总支出分配的最底层 40%）的大米消费量将减少 15%。包括由于 COVID-19 相关的经济放缓导致家庭收入可能下降 12% 的影响，城市和农村贫困人口的大米消费量分别下降了 20% 和 17%。维持主要主食的正常国内供应链对于减轻全球大米价格上涨的影响至关重要，使城市家庭能够增加对当地生产的主食的消费。