In this article, we investigate the underlying driving dynamics behind house price variations in Turkey by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which the housing market and collateral constraints are included. The model also analyses the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the housing market by making policy simulations under different loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, which are used as a housing market-specific economic policy tool. The model is extended by including the traditional Taylor rule with house prices for representing monetary policy. Our findings show that house prices in Turkey are largely explained by housing preference shocks. Besides, we find that monetary policy shock plays a small role in determining the variables of the housing market in the short-term period. However, the magnitude of the impact of housing market shocks on the rest of the economy depends on the LTV ratios. The higher the LTV ratio, the higher are the effects of the government’s housing policy instrument for stabilising the housing market on real macroeconomic variables such as consumption and output in Turkey. Finally, our findings show that the fluctuations in house prices have not played a substantial role in the monetary policy reaction function of Turkey.

JEL Codes: E32, E52, E44, E51, R31

在本文中，我们通过估算包含住房市场和抵押品约束的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型，研究了土耳其房价变动背后的潜在驱动动力。该模型还通过在不同的贷款对价值（LTV）比率下进行政策模拟来分析宏观经济变量与房地产市场之间的相互作用，这些模拟被用作特定于房地产市场的经济政策工具。通过将传统的泰勒规则与代表货币政策的房价相结合来扩展该模型。我们的研究结果表明，土耳其的房价很大程度上是由住房偏好冲击所引起的。此外，我们发现货币政策冲击在决定短期内住房市场变量方面的作用很小。然而，房屋市场冲击对其他经济体的影响程度取决于LTV比率。LTV比率越高，政府用于稳定住房市场的住房政策工具对实际宏观经济变量（如土耳其的消费和产出）的影响就越大。最后，我们的研究结果表明，房价波动并未在土耳其的货币政策反应功能中发挥实质性作用。

JEL代码：E32，E52，E44，E51，R31