Acer saccharum and Acer rubrum, two main maple species in North America, will be affected by ongoing global warming. Several studies predict a southern limit contraction but limited northward expansion of maple distribution for the future. We aimed to understand the main drivers of current maple distribution to quantify potential changes to maple habitat in this context. We identified the local conditions of maple stands and assessed the potential changes under warming scenarios. We selected two regions in Quebec, Canada, at the northern distribution of the species and applied probability distribution function and principal component analysis to identify the factors explaining the occurrence of maple compared with other forest species, croplands, and grasslands. Maple habitat was estimated under warming scenarios up to 2°C. We observed a lower density of maple stands in the north (7.76%), compared to the south (33.01%). Warming increased maple stands by 3.54 and 1.45% in the northernmost and southernmost regions, respectively, with the highest increases being estimated at the initial warming (+1.0°C). We conclude that maple of northern regions can benefit from local warming if precipitation does not become limiting. These changes could increase the potential for the regional maple industry and forest management.

中文翻译：

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加拿大北部山脉两个地区变暖情景下枫树栖息地位置预测

北美两种主要的枫树树种 Acer saccharum 和 Acer rubrum 将受到持续的全球变暖的影响。几项研究预测未来枫树分布的南部限制收缩但向北扩展有限。我们旨在了解当前枫树分布的主要驱动因素，以量化在这种情况下枫树栖息地的潜在变化。我们确定了枫林的当地条件，并评估了变暖情景下的潜在变化。我们选择了加拿大魁北克省的两个区域，位于该物种的北部分布，并应用概率分布函数和主成分分析来确定与其他森林物种、农田和草地相比，枫树出现的原因。枫树栖息地是在升温至 2°C 的情景下估计的。与南部（33.01%）相比，我们观察到北部（7.76%）的枫树林密度较低。变暖使最北端和最南端地区的枫树数量分别增加了 3.54% 和 1.45%，估计在初始变暖（+1.0°C）时增幅最高。我们得出的结论是，如果降水没有限制，北部地区的枫树可以从局部变暖中受益。这些变化可能会增加区域枫树产业和森林管理的潜力。我们得出的结论是，如果降水没有限制，北部地区的枫树可以从局部变暖中受益。这些变化可能会增加区域枫树产业和森林管理的潜力。我们得出的结论是，如果降水没有限制，北部地区的枫树可以从局部变暖中受益。这些变化可能会增加区域枫树产业和森林管理的潜力。