This paper aims to empirically analyze the relationship between natural disaster, health spending, urban population, gross fixed capital formation, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for lower middle-income countries. The data cover the period 2000–2019. The methodological approach used is based on Granger causality and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) procedures. Empirical result reveals that GDP per capita and health spending are correlated positively with urban population. The results also indicate that there is a one-way relationship running from natural disaster to GDP per capita and from natural disaster to health spending in short and long run, while two-way relationship between health spending and urban population in short term. In long run, there is two-way relationship between GDP per capita and health spending.

本文旨在对中低收入国家的自然灾害，卫生支出，城市人口，固定资本形成总额和人均国内生产总值（GDP）之间的关系进行实证分析。数据涵盖2000-2019年期间。所使用的方法学方法基于Granger因果关系和矢量错误校正模型（VECM）程序。实证结果表明，人均国内生产总值和卫生支出与城市人口呈正相关。结果还表明，从短期来看，从自然灾害到人均GDP，从自然灾害到保健支出，存在单向关系，而从短期来看，保健支出与城市人口之间存在双向关系。从长远来看，人均国内生产总值与卫生支出之间存在双向关系。