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How to incorporate human failure event recovery into minimal cut set generation stage for efficient probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants
Nuclear Engineering and Technology ( IF 2.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.net.2021.04.026
Woo Sik Jung 1 , Seong Kyu Park 1 , John E. Weglian 2 , Jeff Riley 3
Affiliation  

Human failure event (HFE) dependency analysis is a part of human reliability analysis (HRA). For efficient HFE dependency analysis, a maximum number of minimal cut sets (MCSs) that have HFE combinations are generated from the fault trees for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). After collecting potential HFE combinations, dependency levels of subsequent HFEs on the preceding HFEs in each MCS are analyzed and assigned as conditional probabilities. Then, HFE recovery is performed to reflect these conditional probabilities in MCSs by modifying MCSs.

Inappropriate HFE dependency analysis and HFE recovery might lead to an inaccurate core damage frequency (CDF). Using the above process, HFE recovery is performed on MCSs that are generated with a non-zero truncation limit, where many MCSs that have HFE combinations are truncated. As a result, the resultant CDF might be underestimated.

In this paper, a new method is suggested to incorporate HFE recovery into the MCS generation stage. Compared to the current approach with a separate HFE recovery after MCS generation, this new method can (1) reduce the total time and burden for MCS generation and HFE recovery, (2) prevent the truncation of MCSs that have dependent HFEs, and (3) avoid CDF underestimation. This new method is a simple but very effective means of performing MCS generation and HFE recovery simultaneously and improving CDF accuracy. The effectiveness and strength of the new method are clearly demonstrated and discussed with fault trees and HFE combinations that have joint probabilities.



中文翻译:

如何将人为故障事件恢复纳入最小割集生成阶段,以实现核电厂的有效概率安全评估

人为故障事件 (HFE) 相关性分析是人为可靠性分析 (HRA) 的一部分。对于有效的 HFE 依赖性分析,具有 HFE 组合的最小割集 (MCS) 的最大数量是从故障树中生成的,用于核电厂 (NPP) 的概率安全评估 (PSA)。在收集潜在的 HFE 组合后,分析每个 MCS 中后续 HFE 对前面 HFE 的依赖级别,并将其分配为条件概率。然后,通过修改 MCS,执行 HFE 恢复以在 MCS 中反映这些条件概率。

不适当的 HFE 依赖性分析和 HFE 恢复可能导致不准确的核心损坏频率 (CDF)。使用上述过程,对生成的具有非零截断限制的 MCS 执行 HFE 恢复,其中许多具有 HFE 组合的 MCS 被截断。因此,最终的 CDF 可能会被低估。

在本文中,提出了一种将 HFE 恢复纳入 MCS 生成阶段的新方法。与当前在 MCS 生成后单独恢复 HFE 的方法相比,这种新方法可以(1)减少 MCS 生成和 HFE 恢复的总时间和负担,(2)防止截断具有依赖 HFE 的 MCS,以及(3 ) 避免 CDF 被低估。这种新方法是一种简单但非常有效的方法,可以同时执行 MCS 生成和 HFE 恢复并提高 CDF 精度。新方法的有效性和强度通过具有联合概率的故障树和 HFE 组合得到了清晰的证明和讨论。

更新日期:2021-05-05
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