Climate change is one of the main threats to many vulnerable species, including the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetnus), due to disruption in biological and ethological responses, hibernation, reproduction, and intraspecific and interspecific interactions. To assess the current and future distribution of the Asiatic black bear in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), we used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) with species presence data and bioclimatic (under two representative concentration pathways i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and non-climatic variables. We identified current and future suitable habitats, climate refugia, increased suitable habitat and vulnerable habitat. Our model estimated that a 487,036 km² area of the HKH is currently suitable for the Asiatic black bear, and projected that 458,060 km² and 470,368 km² areas will be suitable under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by 2050. The maximum area (of the current suitable habitat) projected as climate refugia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was 350,510 km² and 342,796 km², respectively. The model projected a shift in the bear's range towards higher elevations, primarily >3500 m under both RCPs with change an average elevation from 2697 m (under current scenario), to 2949 m (under RCP4.5) and 3021 m (under RCP8.5). Such changes may lead to scarcity of natural resources and increase the dependency of bears on human-related food, which will likely result in increased human-bear conflicts and bear mortalities. The recommended implications, including climate refugia management by habitat corridors, establishment of and increased status for existing natural reserves, improved adaptive management capacity, and strengthening monitoring of bear populations could help to mitigate the intensity of the adverse impacts of climate change on the bear's population.

气候变化是对许多脆弱物种（包括亚洲黑熊（Ursus thibetnus））的主要威胁之一，这是由于其生物学和伦理学反应中断，冬眠，繁殖以及种内和种间相互作用所致。为了评估兴都库什喜马拉雅山（HKH）中亚洲黑熊的当前和未来分布，我们使用了具有物种存在数据和生物气候条件的最大熵模型（MaxEnt）（在两个代表性的浓度路径下，RCP4.5和RCP8.5） ）和非气候变量。我们确定了当前和未来合适的栖息地，气候缓解，合适的栖息地增加和脆弱的栖息地。我们的模型估算出487,036 km ²HKH的区域目前适合亚洲黑熊，并预计到2050年，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5下分别适合458,060 km ²和470,368 km ²区域。 ）预计在RCP4.5和RCP8.5下作为气候避难所分别为350,510 km ²和342,796 km ²， 分别。该模型预测了熊的射程向更高海拔的变化，主要是在两个RCP下都大于3500 m，平均海拔从2697 m（在当前情况下）更改为2949 m（在RCP4.5下）和3021 m（在RCP8下）。 5）。这种变化可能导致自然资源稀缺并增加熊对与人类有关的食物的依赖性，这很可能导致人与熊之间的冲突和熊的死亡。建议的影响包括通过栖息地走廊进行气候避难所管理，建立现有自然保护区并提高其地位，增强适应性管理能力以及加强对熊种群的监测，可以帮助减轻气候变化对熊种群不利影响的强度。