We analyzed a unique data set of livestock numbers in the Mongolian southern Gobi. In a novel approach, we combined biophysical data on precipitation and pasture biomass productivity with data on fine wool prices from 1981 through 2015 to investigate dynamic patterns and responses of livestock numbers in Mongolia's southern Gobi. Using piecewise structural equation modeling enabled us to disentangle the effects of biophysical and politico-economic factors on livestock numbers and species composition, paying particular attention to the singular transition from centrally planned to free-market economy that happened in Mongolia in 1992. Our analysis reveals that biophysical and politico-economic factors were both important determinants of livestock numbers, and highlights the politico-economic singularity of 1992 as the single-largest driver of livestock dynamics in the period investigated.

我们分析了蒙古南部戈壁地区唯一的牲畜数量数据集。我们采用一种新颖的方法，将降水和牧场生物量生产力的生物物理数据与1981年至2015年的细羊毛价格数据相结合，以调查蒙古南部戈壁地区的动态格局和牲畜数量的响应。使用分段结构方程模型，我们可以弄清生物物理和政治经济因素对牲畜数量和物种组成的影响，尤其要注意1992年蒙古发生的从中央计划经济向自由市场经济的单一过渡。我们的分析揭示了生物物理和政治经济因素都是牲畜数量的重要决定因素，