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Evaluating spatial patterns of Asian meteorological drought variations and associated SST anomalies in CMIP6 models
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03639-4
Yanting Zhang , Renguang Wu

This study evaluates the spatial patterns of the Asian summer drought variations and the associated sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 42 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models during 1950–2014. The analysis is focused on the meteorological drought measured using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The evaluation is conducted for short-term, medium-term, and long-term droughts represented by 3-month, 9-month, and 24-month SPI, respectively. Most of the 42 models are able to capture the observed leading spatial pattern of short-term and medium-term drought variations, characterized by a north-south dipole structure. In contrast, most models fail to simulate the observed leading spatial pattern of long-term drought variations, featuring a southwest-northeast oriented tripole distribution. Further analysis shows that most models can represent the spatial pattern of interannual variation of long-term drought with a north-south dipole structure, but cannot produce the spatial pattern of interdecadal variation and trend of long-term drought. In most of the models, the dipole pattern of short-term and medium-term drought variations is associated with an El Niño–type SST anomaly pattern in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, which is similar to the observations, so is the dipole pattern of interannual variation of long-term droughts. This is attributed to the ability of most models to capture the tropica Indo-Pacific SST-related large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern.



中文翻译:

在CMIP6模型中评估亚洲气象干旱变化的空间格局及相关的SST异常

这项研究评估了1950-2014年间42个耦合模型比较项目(CMIP6)模型中亚洲夏季干旱变化的空间格局及相关的海面温度(SST)异常。该分析集中在使用标准化降水指数(SPI)进行的气象干旱测量上。针对分别以3个月,9个月和24个月SPI表示的短期,中期和长期干旱进行评估。这42个模型中的大多数能够捕获观察到的短期和中期干旱变化的主导空间格局,其特征是南北偶极子结构。相比之下,大多数模型都无法模拟观察到的长期干旱变化的主导空间格局,其特征是西南-东北向三脚架分布。进一步的分析表明,大多数模型可以代表南北偶极结构的长期干旱年际变化的空间格局,但不能产生年代际变化和长期干旱趋势的空间格局。在大多数模型中,短期和中期干旱变化的偶极子模式与热带印度洋-太平洋地区的厄尔尼诺型海表温度异常模式有关,这与观测值相似,偶极子模式也是如此。长期干旱的年际变化。这归因于大多数模型具有捕获与热带印支-太平洋SST相关的大规模大气环流异常模式的能力。但不能产生年代际变化和长期干旱趋势的空间格局。在大多数模型中,短期和中期干旱变化的偶极子模式与热带印度洋-太平洋地区的厄尔尼诺型海表温度异常模式有关,这与观测值相似,偶极子模式也是如此。长期干旱的年际变化。这归因于大多数模型具有捕获与热带印支-太平洋SST相关的大规模大气环流异常模式的能力。但不能产生年代际变化和长期干旱趋势的空间格局。在大多数模型中,短期和中期干旱变化的偶极子模式与热带印度洋-太平洋地区的厄尔尼诺型海表温度异常模式有关,这与观测值相似,偶极子模式也是如此。长期干旱的年际变化。这归因于大多数模型具有捕获与热带印支-太平洋SST相关的大规模大气环流异常模式的能力。长期干旱的年际变化的偶极子模式也是如此。这归因于大多数模型具有捕获与热带印支-太平洋SST相关的大规模大气环流异常模式的能力。长期干旱的年际变化的偶极子模式也是如此。这归因于大多数模型具有捕获与热带印支-太平洋SST相关的大规模大气环流异常模式的能力。

更新日期:2021-05-05
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