Abstract—

The paper proposes a method for assessing the ecological risk, changing throughout the year with the natural functioning of marine ecosystems, and impact of various stressors. The method was applied to ecosystems contrast in productivity of the Arctic shelf. The paper analyses the features of the annual variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Barents, White, Chukchi, Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian seas for 1996–2018 based on the published materials of field research and estimates the annual risk variations for high- and low-productivity ecosystems with two and one annual maximum of phytoplankton biomass. Based on the obtained estimates, the probability of acceptable intensity of anthropogenic impact was calculated for three anthropogenic impact scenarios, with consideration of acceptable risks taken in the development of oil and gas resources on the shelf. The results revealed regions of safe impacts on the ecosystem, in which the type of impacts chosen in the experiment can be assumed with a probability of 80–100%, and regions of increased risk with the possibility of impacts less than 20–30%. We also obtained very close values of the risk and probability of acceptable impacts for high- and low-productive ecosystems of the Arctic shelf for a certain type and duration of impacts. This indicates that the determining risk factor in the proposed formulation of the problem is deviation of the average phytoplankton biomass from the average and critical values; i.e., when approaching the boundaries of stability, the risk increases. The proposed approach makes it possible to take into account the specifics of environmental safety issues in relation to asymmetric requirements for correcting type I and II errors.

中文翻译：

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不同生产力的北极大陆架生态系统生态风险模型评估方法

摘要-

本文提出了一种评估生态风险的方法，该方法全年随海洋生态系统的自然功能变化以及各种压力源的影响而变化。该方法被应用于北极大陆架生产力的生态系统对比。本文根据已发表的实地研究资料，分析了1996-2018年巴伦支，怀特，楚科奇，卡拉，拉普捷夫和东西伯利亚海域浮游植物生物量的年度变化特征，并估算了高，高海拔地区的年度风险变化。低生产力的生态系统，浮游植物生物量每年最多增加两个和一年。根据获得的估算值，针对三种人为影响情景计算了可接受的人为影响强度的概率，考虑到架子上油气资源开发所承受的可接受风险。结果揭示了对生态系统产生安全影响的区域，其中可以假设实验中选择的影响类型的概率为80–100％，而风险增加的区域则可能小于20–30％。对于某些影响类型和持续时间，我们还获得了极高的价值，即北极大陆架高生产力和低生产力生态系统可接受的影响的风险和概率。这表明在提出的问题解决方案中确定的危险因素是浮游植物平均生物量与平均值和临界值之间的偏差；即，当接近稳定性的边界时，风险会增加。