Findings from the literature of flood risk management have suggested that heuristics increase exposure to flood risks. This article models some of these conventional heuristics. The main finding emerging from survey data is that not every heuristic significantly correlates with the decision of households to not take protective actions. Flood experience, as it has been corroborated in the literature, turned out to be the main driver among residents living in flood-prone areas in Southeast Queensland, Australia, to take protective actions against flood risks. More specifically, households who featured perceived negative flood experiences were more likely to take out flood insurance, retrofit or raise their property, and relocate. This survey analysis is supported by the Theory of Ecological Rationality. It suggests that flood mitigation policies should create models that mimic real-world decision-making processes to gain further insights into how flood experience affects risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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洪水的启发式和防护行为

洪水风险管理文献的研究结果表明，启发式方法增加了洪水风险的暴露。本文模拟了其中一些传统的启发式方法。调查数据的主要发现是，并非每个启发式都与家庭不采取保护措施的决定显着相关。正如文献所证实的那样，洪水经验被证明是居住在澳大利亚昆士兰东南部洪水易发地区的居民采取保护措施抵御洪水风险的主要驱动力。更具体地说，具有负面洪水经历的家庭更有可能购买洪水保险、改造或提高他们的财产并搬迁。这一调查分析得到了生态理性理论的支持。