This paper examines the determinants of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa, based on the framework of social determinants of health. Applying Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and quantile regressions to panel data and country-specific socioeconomic background data from 53 African countries, the study finds that enhancing capacity for early testing helps for timeous uncovering of cases, early isolation and contact tracing for effective control of the spread. Other factors such as managing of international movements through reduction of international exposure and ensuring better sanitation and hygiene were found to be relevant in diminishing COVID-19 spread, whereas alcohol consumption and population density heighten the spread. The work also highlights that stringent measures will be counter-productive unless they are coupled with measures to create and preserve livelihoods, together with humanitarian relief assistance to the poorest segments of the population. The results are robust to alternative techniques. As policy recommendations, we implore African governments to the promotion of sustainable livelihoods and social safety nets as measures to accompany stringent lockdowns; and good sanitation programmes to become a lifestyle of citizens. Careful attention should be paid to the socioeconomic trade-off in respect of international travel restrictions given the high dependence of most African economies on tourism.

中文翻译：

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非洲可以从 COVID-19 传播的社会决定因素中汲取哪些经验教训，以便更好地应对非洲大陆当前和未来的流行病？

本文基于健康问题社会决定因素框架，探讨了 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在非洲传播的决定因素。研究将泊松伪最大似然（PPML）和分位数回归应用于53个非洲国家的面板数据和特定国家的社会经济背景数据，发现增强早期检测能力有助于及时发现病例、早期隔离和接触者追踪，从而实现有效控制的传播。其他因素，例如通过减少国际暴露来管理国际流动以及确保更好的环境卫生和个人卫生，被发现与减少 COVID-19 传播有关，而饮酒和人口密度则加剧了传播。这项工作还强调，严格的措施将适得其反，除非与创造和维护生计的措施相结合，并向最贫困人口提供人道主义救济援助。结果对于替代技术是稳健的。作为政策建议，我们恳请非洲各国政府促进可持续生计和社会安全网，作为配合严格封锁的措施；良好的卫生项目成为公民的生活方式。鉴于大多数非洲经济体对旅游业的高度依赖，应密切关注国际旅行限制方面的社会经济权衡。