Using a simple Bayesian ‘mixed effects’ hierarchical model we provide econometric estimates of annual 2020 employment losses in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic for 15 SADC member states on the basis of historical GDP data between 2000 and 2019 and 2020 forecasts. Our mixed effects model consists of country-varying coefficients, as well as ‘fixed’ (pooled) coefficients. This allows us to fully explore variation between countries. The model provides estimates for losses in total employment and women's employment, from which we infer income losses. We find that roughly half of estimated SADC countries have total employment losses below or approaching 25% of all jobs, while the other half have total losses exceeding 25%. Around one-third of all jobs for women risk being lost during 2020 for Madagascar, Comoros, Angola, Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa. Our model implies that most SADC countries will experience an equivalent loss of wage income in excess of 10% of GDP (whether through pure job losses and/or reductions in wages and working hours). Policy implications are briefly discussed.

中文翻译：

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使用贝叶斯分层模型研究 COVID-19 期间 GDP 冲击对 SADC 成员国就业的影响


我们使用简单的贝叶斯“混合效应”分层模型，根据 2000 年至 2019 年的历史 GDP 数据以及 2020 年预测，对 15 个 SADC 成员国在 COVID-19 大流行的背景下，提供了 2020 年年度就业损失的计量经济学估计。我们的混合效应模型由各国不同的系数以及“固定”（汇总）系数组成。这使我们能够充分探索国家之间的差异。该模型提供了对总就业和妇女就业损失的估计，我们从中推断出收入损失。我们发现，据估计，大约一半的南部非洲发展共同体国家的总就业损失率低于或接近所有就业岗位的 25%，而另一半国家的总损失率则超过 25%。 2020 年，马达加斯加、科摩罗、安哥拉、博茨瓦纳、纳米比亚和南非的女性约有三分之一的工作面临失业风险。我们的模型表明，大多数南部非洲发展共同体国家将经历相当于 GDP 超过 10% 的工资收入损失（无论是纯粹的失业和/或工资和工作时间的减少）。简要讨论了政策影响。