Global warming is affecting plant phenology, growth and reproduction in complex ways and is particularly apparent in vulnerable alpine environments. Warming affects reproductive and vegetative traits, as well as phenology, but seldom do studies assess these traits in concert and across the whole of a plant’s life cycle, particularly in wild species. Thus, it is difficult to extrapolate from such effects to predictions about the persistence of species or their conservation and management. We assessed trait variation in response to warming in Oreomyrrhis eriopoda, an Australian native montane herb, in which populations vary in germination strategy (degree of dormancy) and growth characteristics as a function of ecological factors. Warming accelerated growth in the early stages of development, particularly for populations with non-dormant seed. The differences in growth disappeared at the transition to reproduction, when an accelerating effect on phenology emerged, to varying degrees depending on germination strategy. Overall, warming reduced flower and seed production and increased mortality, indicating a reduction in reproductive opportunities, particularly for populations with dormant seed. Developmental condition affected germination strategy of the next generation seed, leading to increased degree of dormancy and slowed germination rate. But there were no whole-scale shifts in strategy or total germination percent. Following through the life cycle reveals that warming will have some potentially positive effects (early growth rates) and some negative effects (reduced reproductive output). Ultimately, warming impacts will depend on how those effects play out in the field: early establishment and an accelerated trajectory to seed maturity may offset the tradeoff with overall seed production. Small differences among germination strategies likewise may cascade to larger effects, with important implications for persistence of species in the alpine landscape. Thus, to understand and manage the response of wild species to warming takes a whole-of-life perspective and attention to ecologically significant patterns of within-species variation.

中文翻译：

---

预测变暖的影响需要从整个生命周期的角度来看：高山草本植物 Oreomyrrhis eriopoda 的案例研究

全球变暖正以复杂的方式影响植物物候、生长和繁殖，在脆弱的高山环境中尤为明显。变暖会影响生殖和植物性状以及物候学，但很少有研究在整个植物生命周期中评估这些性状，尤其是在野生物种中。因此，很难从这些影响推断出关于物种持久性或其保护和管理的预测。我们评估了澳大利亚本土山地草本 Oreomyrrhis eriopoda 对变暖的反应性状变化，其中种群的发芽策略（休眠程度）和生长特征作为生态因素的函数而变化。在发育的早期阶段，变暖加速了生长，特别是对于具有非休眠种子的种群。在向繁殖过渡时，生长的差异消失了，此时对物候的加速作用出现了，不同程度取决于发芽策略。总体而言，变暖减少了花卉和种子的产量并增加了死亡率，表明生殖机会减少，特别是对于具有休眠种子的人群而言。发育条件影响下一代种子的发芽策略，导致休眠程度增加，发芽率减慢。但战略或总发芽率没有发生全面变化。跟踪整个生命周期表明，变暖将产生一些潜在的积极影响（早期增长率）和一些负面影响（减少生殖产出）。最终，变暖的影响将取决于这些影响如何在现场发挥作用：早期建立和种子成熟的加速轨迹可能会抵消与整体种子产量的权衡。发芽策略之间的微小差异同样可能会产生更大的影响，对高山景观中物种的持久性具有重要意义。因此，要了解和管理野生物种对变暖的反应，需要从整个生命的角度来关注物种内变异的生态显着模式。