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Anthropogenic Speeding Up of South China Flash Droughts as Exemplified by the 2019 Summer‐Autumn Transition Season
Geophysical Research Letters ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-04 , DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091901
Yumiao Wang 1 , Xing Yuan 1
Affiliation  

The emergence of flash drought has raised widespread attention due to its rapid development and devastating impacts, but whether climate change affects its evolution and intensity is still elusive. Here, we investigate a severe flash drought event that fully developed over South China within a month in August 2019 and persisted until November. It has a 1‐in‐229‐year rapid onset speed and 1‐in‐80‐year large intensity due to strong cyclonic anomaly over western North Pacific and persistent local geopotential height anomaly. The attribution based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data shows that anthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of onset speed and intensity of the drought event by 24 ± 16% and 37 ± 9%, respectively, which is closely related to anthropogenic temperature increase and precipitation decrease. Our study implies that anthropogenic climate change accelerates the drought onset speed and increases the challenge for drought adaptation.

中文翻译:

2019年夏季至秋季过渡季节所体现的人为加速华南爆发干旱

速生干旱的出现由于其快速发展和破坏性影响而引起了广泛的关注,但是气候变化是否会影响其演变和强度尚不清楚。在这里,我们调查了严重的山洪暴发事件,该事件在2019年8月的一个月内在华南地区全面发展,一直持续到11月。由于北太平洋西部强烈的气旋异常和持续的局部地势高度异常,它具有1到229年的快速起伏速度和1到80年的大强度。根据最新的耦合模型比较项目第六期(CMIP6)数据得出的归因表明,人为气候变化使干旱事件的发作速度和强度的可能性分别增加了24±16%和37±9%,这与人为温度升高和降水减少密切相关。我们的研究表明,人为的气候变化加快了干旱的爆发速度,并增加了干旱适应的挑战。
更新日期:2021-05-10
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