Despite the importance of viscoelasticity in the evolution of crustal stress/strain being widely recognized, the interpretation of interseismic geodetic measurements for assessing earthquake potential is still based overwhelmingly on elastic models. The reasons for this disparity include conflating deformation rates with deformation itself and the lack of a succinct representation of the seismic readiness of a locked fault in a viscoelastic Earth. Using a classical viscoelastic model for strike-slip faults, we reiterate the commonly overlooked message that, if the recurrence interval is long, most of the strain energy for the next earthquake accrues early in the cycle, and low strain rates later in the cycle by no means indicate diminished rupture potential. Fault stress stays near failure for much of the late interseismic period which may explain why slow slip-rate faults have more variable recurrence intervals than fast slip-rate faults. We propose to use displacement deficit instead of slip deficit to represent seismic readiness.

中文翻译：

---

大地变形率与地震潜势的相关性

尽管粘弹性在地壳应力/应变演化中的重要性已得到广泛认可，但用于评估地震潜力的震间大地测量的解释仍然主要基于弹性模型。这种差异的原因包括将变形率与变形本身混为一谈，以及缺乏对粘弹性地球中锁定断层的地震准备情况的简洁表示。使用经典的走滑断层粘弹性模型，我们重申了一个普遍被忽视的信息，如果重复间隔很长，下一次地震的大部分应变能会在周期的早期积累，而在周期后期的低应变率则为没有表示破裂的可能性降低。断层应力在震间后期的大部分时间里都接近破坏，这可以解释为什么慢滑动速率断层比快速滑动速率断层具有更多可变的复发间隔。我们建议使用位移赤字而不是滑动赤字来表示地震准备。