In the present study, we analysed how geographical distribution of the fungal pathogen Cryptococcus gattii VGI in Europe and Mediterranean area has evolved in the last four decades based on the climatic changes, and we tried to predict the scenario for the next decade. Niche modelling by Maxent analysis showed that recent climate changes have significantly affected the distribution of the fungus revealing a gradual expansion of the fundamental niche from 1980 to 2009 followed by an impressive increase in the last decade (2010–2019) during which the environmental surface suitable for the fungal survival was more than doubled. In the next decade, our model predicted an increase in the area of distribution of C. gattii VGI from the coasts of the Mediterranean basin towards the more internal sub-continental areas. On the basis of these predictions, an increase of cases of cryptococcosis due to C. gattii VGI is expected in the next decade and a constant monitoring of the epidemiology of this fungal pathogen represents a crucial strategy to detect the onset of future outbreaks.

中文翻译：

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全球变暖对欧洲加特隐球菌 VGI 基本生态位扩张的影响

在本研究中，我们根据气候变化分析了过去 40 年欧洲和地中海地区真菌病原体Cryptococcus gattii VGI 的地理分布如何演变，并试图预测未来十年的情况。Maxent 分析的生态位模型表明，最近的气候变化显着影响了真菌的分布，揭示了从 1980 年到 2009 年基本生态位逐渐扩大，随后在过去十年（2010-2019 年）显着增加，在此期间环境表面适合因为真菌的存活率增加了一倍以上。在接下来的十年中，我们的模型预测C的分布区域会增加。加蒂VGI 从地中海盆地沿岸到更内部的次大陆地区。基于这些预测，由C引起的隐球菌病病例增加。gattii VGI 预计将在未来十年内出现，持续监测这种真菌病原体的流行病学是检测未来暴发爆发的关键策略。