Quantitative data on observed flood ground effects are precious information to assess current risk levels and to improve our capability to forecast future flood damage, with the final aim of defining effective prevention policies and checking their success. This paper presents the first collection and analysis of flood damage claims produced in Italy in the past 7 years since a homogeneous national procedure for damage recognition became available. The database currently contains more than 70,000 claims referring to significant events and shows good homogeneity on the intensity of the related phenomena. We then propose an empirical model, based on observed data, to allow for a quick estimation of direct damage to private assets (i.e., residential buildings), based only on the knowledge of the perimeter of the flooded area. Single model calibration was performed at the multi-regional scale, focused on southern Italy. Model validation shows encouraging performances, considering the considerable natural uncertainty that characterizes this type of estimate. The procedure is of great interest when there is a need to evaluate, however roughly, flood damage in the immediacy of the event to assess the extent of the flood effects and to plan support actions for the affected communities.

中文翻译：

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用于区域规模快速评估的零级洪水破坏模型

有关观测到的洪水地面影响的定量数据是宝贵的信息，可用于评估当前的风险水平并提高我们预测未来洪水灾害的能力，最终目的是定义有效的预防政策并检查其成功之处。本文介绍了自从采用统一的国家损害赔偿程序以来，意大利在过去7年中首次提出的洪灾损失索赔并进行了分析。该数据库目前包含70,000多个涉及重大事件的声明，并且在相关现象的强度上显示出良好的同质性。然后，我们基于观察到的数据提出一个经验模型，以便仅基于洪水区域的周长，即可快速估计对私人资产（即住宅建筑物）的直接损害。以意大利南部为中心，在多区域范围内执行了单模型校准。考虑到表征此类估计的相当大的自然不确定性，模型验证显示出令人鼓舞的性能。当需要在事件发生时立即评估洪水的破坏程度，以评估洪水影响的程度并为受影响的社区制定支持行动时，该程序非常有用。