ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the economic effects of military base downsizing and closures at the regional level, considering the case of the US military Air Base located at Lajes, in Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal. A Computable General Equilibrium Model is used as a tool to examine these effects, allowing potential sector details and the identification of distributional implications. The results suggest that when no mitigation policies are undertaken, the downsizing process has a small regional effect on GDP but a greater local effect on the island. Imports, as expected, tend to decrease in the cutback scenarios and to increase when specific mitigation policies are considered. The main export gainers are the primary sectors that become more competitive due to factor price decreases. The main export losers are some industrialized products and services. The results provide support for the implementation of mitigation policies, which should be reasonable in both their intensity and focus, since there is a risk associated with these policies. Replenishing the public budget and allowing expenditures according to the current government expenditure structure tends to crowd-out private initiatives, leading to an overall long-term negative effect on the economy.

摘要

本文以位于葡萄牙亚速尔群岛特塞拉岛拉杰斯的美国军事空军基地为例，分析了军事基地规模缩小和关闭在区域层面的经济影响。可计算的一般均衡模型被用作检查这些影响的工具，允许潜在的部门细节和分配影响的识别。结果表明，当不采取缓解政策时，缩小规模过程对 GDP 的区域影响很小，但对岛屿的局部影响更大。正如预期的那样，进口在削减情景中趋于减少，而在考虑具体缓解政策时则增加。主要出口增长者是由于要素价格下降而变得更具竞争力的初级部门。主要的出口输家是一些工业化产品和服务。结果为缓解政策的实施提供了支持，这些政策的强度和重点都应该是合理的，因为这些政策存在风险。根据当前的政府支出结构补充公共预算并允许支出往往会排挤私人主动性，从而对经济产生长期的整体负面影响。