In this study, we examine the efficiency and unbiasedness of Atlantic salmon futures prices. Market participants use the Fish Pool futures market to hedge the increasingly volatile salmon spot price. We further examine the futures market's predictive accuracy, comparing it to a variety of proprietary prediction models. Our results show that futures prices are efficient and unbiased in the long‐run, while being biased and inefficient in the short‐run. Moreover, we find that futures prices provide an adequate price discovery function for most contracts, while suffering from magnified risk premiums due to few noncommercial traders.

中文翻译：

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大西洋鲑鱼期货市场的效率

在这项研究中，我们研究了大西洋鲑鱼期货价格的效率和公正性。市场参与者使用鱼塘期货市场来对冲鲑鱼现货价格日益波动的情况。我们进一步检查了期货市场的预测准确性，并将其与各种专有的预测模型进行了比较。我们的结果表明，期货价格长期而言是有效且无偏见的，而短期而言则是有偏见且无效率的。此外，我们发现期货价格为大多数合约提供了足够的价格发现功能，同时由于很少的非商业交易者而遭受了放大的风险溢价。