This paper develops a vehicle scheduling method for the electric bus (EB) route considering stochastic volatilities in trip travel time and energy consumption. First, a model for estimating the trip energy consumption is proposed based on field-collected data, and the probability distribution function of trip energy consumption considering the stochastic volatility is determined. Second, we propose the charging strategy to recharge buses during their idle times. The impacts of stochastic volatilities on the departure time, the idle time, the battery state of charge, and the energy consumption of each trip are analyzed. Third, an optimization model is built with the objectives of minimizing the expectation of delays in trip departure times, the summation of energy consumption expectations, and bus procurement costs. Finally, a real bus route is taken as an example to validate the proposed method. Results show that reasonable idle times can be generated by optimizing the scheduling plan, and it is helpful to stop the accumulation of stochastic volatilities. Collaboratively optimizing vehicle scheduling and charging plans can reduce the EB fleet and delay times while meeting the route operation needs.

中文翻译：

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考虑出行时间和能耗随机波动的电动公交车调度优化

本文开发了一种电动公交车 (EB) 路线的车辆调度方法，考虑了行程旅行时间和能源消耗的随机波动性。首先，提出了基于实地采集数据的出行能耗估算模型，确定了考虑随机波动的出行能耗概率分布函数。其次，我们提出了在公交车空闲时间为公交车充电的充电策略。分析了随机波动率对出发时间、空闲时间、电池荷电状态和每次出行能量消耗的影响。第三，建立优化模型，目标是最小化行程出发时间延迟的预期、能源消耗预期的总和以及公共汽车采购成本。最后，以一条真实的公交路线为例来验证所提出的方法。结果表明，通过优化调度计划可以产生合理的空闲时间，有助于阻止随机波动的积累。协同优化车辆调度和充电计划，可以在满足路线运营需求的同时，减少EB车队和延误时间。