This article presents a calculation-based methodology to determine the dominant event class in each of the phases of disasters being analysed, and to address the question of whether different disasters have similarities at crucial times in each phase of the disaster. Our approach is based on event network analysis. Disasters can be modelled using block diagrams and multiphase process trees. We propose trees in this article can be used as a tool for modelling phases of a disaster. The starting point for developing these models was fault tree analysis used for modelling the reliability structure of complex systems. This study demonstrates the possibility of using dual fault trees to describe the process as opposed to the structure. In our analyses, we examined four major disasters of production platforms that occurred in the last 50 years: Ixtoc I, Piper Alpha, Petrobras 36 and Deep Water Horizon. The course of each of these disasters has been described, the basic events of these disasters have been isolated, and assigned to event classes. The hierarchical importance of events was determined using the Birnbaum reliability measure, Birnbaum structural measure, Fussell-Vesely measure, criticality measure and improvement potential. For each phase of the analysed disasters, event importance is ranked, and the most important events that contributed to the phase are identified. General principles on the analysed disasters and the methodology used are also discussed.

本文提供了一种基于计算的方法，可以确定正在分析的每个灾难阶段的主要事件类别，并解决不同灾难在每个灾难阶段的关键时刻是否具有相似性的问题。我们的方法基于事件网络分析。可以使用框图和多阶段过程树对灾难进行建模。我们建议本文中的树可以用作对灾难阶段建模的工具。开发这些模型的起点是用于对复杂系统的可靠性结构进行建模的故障树分析。这项研究证明了使用双重故障树来描述与结构相反的过程的可能性。在我们的分析中，我们研究了过去50年中发生的四大生产平台灾难：Ixtoc I，Piper Alpha，Petrobras 36和Deep Water Horizo​​n。已经描述了每种灾难的过程，这些灾难的基本事件已被隔离，并分配给事件类别。使用Birnbaum可靠性度量，Birnbaum结构度量，Fussell-Vesely度量，关键性度量和改进潜力来确定事件的层次重要性。对于所分析灾难的每个阶段，将对事件的重要性进行排名，并确定造成该阶段的最重要事件。还讨论了有关已分析灾难的一般原则以及所使用的方法。使用Birnbaum可靠性度量，Birnbaum结构度量，Fussell-Vesely度量，关键性度量和改进潜力来确定事件的层次重要性。对于所分析灾难的每个阶段，将对事件的重要性进行排名，并确定造成该阶段的最重要事件。还讨论了有关已分析灾难的一般原则以及所使用的方法。使用Birnbaum可靠性度量，Birnbaum结构度量，Fussell-Vesely度量，关键性度量和改进潜力来确定事件的层次重要性。对于所分析灾难的每个阶段，将对事件的重要性进行排名，并确定造成该阶段的最重要事件。还讨论了有关已分析灾难的一般原则以及所使用的方法。