ABSTRACT

This research examines the impact of the lockdown announcement imposed by the Indian government on the different leading sectors of the economy such as pharmaceuticals, FMCG, Financial services, banking, energy, etc. Event study method has been used to analyze the data. Lockdown announcement day has been considered as the event for our study. We have taken a 40-day event window, i.e., 20 days before and 20 days after the date of the announcement. Secondary data is used in the study and the same is collected from the NSE website. Using MS Excel, we have applied three methods for analysis—mean-adjusted, market-adjusted, and risk-adjusted abnormal return. Auto, Bank, Financial Services, FMCG, IT, Media, Metal, Pharma, Private bank, PSU Bank, Realty, Oil & Gas, and Energy are sectors of NSE that were taken for the study. Our results indicated that most of the sectors performed positively and gained abnormal returns during 21 days after the announcement. It showed that these sectors recovered their position after going down the market index. This shows that investors were confident that the impact was due to the abnormal condition of the market and not due to the fault or fundamental problems of these sectors. Based on the results, investors may decide to hold their position in the stock that has recovered during the period. Also, investors can diversify their portfolio in those sectors to which abnormal return was positive besides the COVID-19 impact. This is the first study to analyze the effects of the announcement of lockdown due to COVID-19 on the stock market performance of different sectors using the event study method in the context Indian stock market.

摘要

本研究考察了印度政府宣布的封锁措施对制药、快速消费品、金融服务、银行、能源等不同主要经济部门的影响。已使用事件研究方法来分析数据。锁定宣布日已被视为我们研究的事件。我们采用了 40 天的事件窗口，即公告日期前 20 天和之后 20 天。研究中使用了二手数据，同样的数据是从 NSE 网站收集的。我们使用 MS Excel 应用了三种分析方法——均值调整后、市场调整后和风险调整后的异常收益。汽车、银行、金融服务、快速消费品、IT、媒体、金属、制药、私人银行、PSU 银行、房地产、石油和天然气以及能源是 NSE 的研究领域。我们的结果显示，大部分板块在公告发布后的 21 天内表现良好并获得了异常回报。表明这些板块在大盘指数下跌后回升。这表明投资者有信心，影响是由于市场的异常情况，而不是由于这些行业的故障或基本面问题。根据结果​​，投资者可能决定持有在此期间回升的股票的头寸。此外，除了 COVID-19 的影响外，投资者还可以在那些异常回报为正的行业中分散投资组合。这是第一项在印度股市背景下使用事件研究方法分析因 COVID-19 宣布封锁对不同行业股市表现的影响的研究。