Humans make sense of the world through narratives. Therefore, adversaries often use conflict-sustaining narratives to maintain dominance and delegitimize the actions of the rivals. To better understand narratives’ role and influence in such intractable conflicts, a computational framework and methodology are introduced. The computational cognitive model and its underlying inference mechanism allow analysts to simulate and analyze narratives in relation to opposing narratives. The ability to simulate the interaction of adversarial stories with a set of micronarratives shared by members of a group opens new avenues to counter conflict-sustaining narratives. The methodology and its application to a concrete conflict scenario demonstrate how to conduct simulation-driven exploratory analysis over a complex adaptive narrative space to discern how narratives are matched to unfolding events and how they can be used to facilitate favorable change.

人类通过叙事来理解世界。因此，对手经常使用维持冲突的叙事来保持统治地位，并使对手的行为合法化。为了更好地理解叙事在此类棘手冲突中的作用和影响，引入了一种计算框架和方法。计算认知模型及其潜在的推理机制使分析人员可以模拟和分析与对立叙事有关的叙事。模拟对抗性故事与一组小组成员共享的一组微型叙事的互动能力，为对抗冲突的叙事开辟了新途径。