Abstract

Estimates of the contribution of direct radiative forcing (DRF) to the surface air temperature trends over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents for the period 1979–2012 have been obtained based on an ensemble of numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model using the prescribed historical sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration data with and without time-varying concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. The contribution of DRF to the simulated ensemble mean temperature variations over land in the NH in winter and summer is approximately 30% or 0.3°С and 0.2°С, respectively. The maximum warming associated with DRF was found, in particular, in winter and summer over the eastern part of the European territory of Russia. The results indicate that the response of atmosphere circulation to DRF may lead to a nonlinear DRF contribution to the temperature changes in the NH, in particular mitigating the temperature increase in the winter season.

中文翻译：

---

直接辐射强迫对近代地表气温变化影响的估算

摘要

根据对大气总环流模型的数值实验结果，采用规定的方法，估计了北半球（NH）大陆在1979年至2012年期间直接辐射强迫（DRF）对地表气温趋势的贡献。包含和不包含大气中温室气体和气溶胶浓度随时间变化的历史海面温度和海冰浓度数据。在冬季和夏季，DRF对北半球陆地整体模拟平均温度变化的贡献分别约为30％或0.3°С和0.2°С。特别是在俄罗斯欧洲领土东部的冬季和夏季，发现了与DRF相关的最大变暖现象。