One of the largest hydropower projects in Africa is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is currently under construction in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin in Ethiopia. The GERD has been billed as a hydropower project that will significantly improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and neighboring countries with a total capacity of 5150 MW. This paper evaluates the hydrological potential of the UBN basin for meeting the declared hydropower production design from the GERD. Our investigation indicated that the hydrology of the UBN can sustain the inflow to the GERD that would produce 13 629 GWh per annum (capacity factor = 0.30). Investigations further revealed that the GERD operation in the current design configuration will likely result in eight (out of 14) idle turbines every year. Our study also demonstrated that current GERD capacity (5150 MW) is more reasonable than previous designs (e.g., 6000 and 6450 MW).

中文翻译：

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评估埃塞俄比亚大文艺复兴大坝的水电潜力

非洲最大的水电项目之一是埃塞俄比亚大复兴水坝（GERD），该水坝目前正在埃塞俄比亚的上蓝尼罗河（UBN）盆地中建设。GERD被标为水电项目，将显着改善埃塞俄比亚和邻国的电力供应，总装机容量为5150兆瓦。本文评估了UBN流域的水文潜力，以符合GERD宣布的水电生产设计。我们的调查表明，UBN的水文状况可以维持流入GERD的流量，每年将产生13629 GWh（容量系数= 0.30）。调查进一步显示，在当前设计配置下的GERD操作可能每年导致八台（每14台）空转涡轮机。