We model learning losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential for cost-effective strategies to build back better. Data from Early Grade Reading Assessments in Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Tanzania, and Uganda suggest half to over a year’s worth of learning loss. In modeling losses over time, we found that learning deficits for a child in grade 3 could lead to 2.8 years of lost learning by grade 10. While COVID-19 has stymied learning, bold, learning-focused reform consistent with the literature reviewed in this paper—specifically reform on targeted instruction and structured pedagogy—could improve learning even beyond pre-COVID-19 levels.

我们对因COVID-19大流行而造成的学习损失进行建模，并建立具有成本效益的策略来更好地进行重建的潜力。来自埃塞俄比亚，肯尼亚，利比里亚，坦桑尼亚和乌干达的早期阅读评估的数据表明，一年中有一半至一年以上的学习损失。在模拟随时间的损失时，我们发现3年级儿童的学习障碍到10年级可能导致2.8年的学习损失。尽管COVID-19阻碍了学习，但大胆，以学习为中心的改革与本文中的文献一致论文-特别是针对目标教学和结构化教学法的改革-甚至可以提高COVID-19之前的水平，从而改善学习。