Substantial decrease in concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events in Huai River Basin, China,International Journal of Climatology

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Substantial decrease in concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events in Huai River Basin, China
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-01 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7168
Yuqing Zhang ₁ , Xiuqin Yang ₂ , Changchun Chen ₃

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Concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events can significantly impact local ecosystems, socio-economies, and human health. The respective characteristics of droughts and cold extremes have been extensively studied, however, their concurrent extremes have received very little attention. In this study, we used the Huai River Basin as a case to build a magnitude index of concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events (CDCMI) based on daily minimum temperature data and a 1-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1961 to 2018. Results show that the magnitude of meteorological droughts increased over the observation period, while consecutive cold events significantly decreased. CDCMI showed a significant downward trend at a rate of −0.14 per decade. Large differences were observed between 1990–2018 and 1961–1989—especially in the southern parts of the basin (around −50%). The frequency of mild and moderate concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events showed no significant upward or downward trends, but severe and extreme concurrent events showed pronounced decreasing trends at rates of −0.03 events/decade and − 0.036 events/decade, respectively. Under the same return period, high CDCMI values are present in the southeastern part of the basin, indicating that the concurrent events in this region are more serious. When CDCMI = 1.79 (extreme grade), the return period in the southeastern part of the basin (5–10 years) is much lower than that in the northwestern part of the basin (>100 years), indicating that this part is harmed to a greater extent by the concurrent extremes than elsewhere in the basin. The spatial pattern of maximum CDCMI again indicates that the southeastern part of the basin is at a high risk for concurrent events. The proposed magnitude index may be a useful tool for analysing concurrent (compound) droughts and cold events as well as their potential impacts.

更新日期：2021-05-01

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