A holistic approach to the management of water, energy, food, and the environment is required to both meet the socioeconomic demands of the future as well as sustainable development of these limited resources. The Urmia Lake Basin has faced environmental, social, and economic challenges in recent years, and this situation is likely to worsen under the impacts of climate change. For this study, an adaptability analysis of this region is proposed for the 2040 horizon year. Two models, the water evaluation and planning (WEAP (Stockholm Environmental Institute, Stockholm, Sweden)) and the low emissions analysis platform (LEAP (Stockholm Environmental Institute, Boston, MA, USA)), are integrated to simulate changes in water, energy, food, and the environment over these 20 years. Two climate scenarios and nine policy scenarios are combined to assess sustainable development using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. Results show that, through pursuing challenging goals in agricultural, potable water, energy, and industrial sectors, sustainable development will be achieved. In this scenario, the Lake Urmia water level will reach its ecological water level in 2040. However, social, technical, and political challenges are considered obstacles to implementing the goals of this scenario. In addition, industry growth and industry structure adjustment have the most impact on sustainable development achievement.

中文翻译：

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展开针对伊朗适应气候变化的水-能源-食品-环境纽带：乌尔米亚湖流域案例研究

为了满足未来的社会经济需求以及这些有限资源的可持续发展，需要一种整体的方法来管理水，能源，食物和环境。乌尔米亚湖流域近年来面临着环境，社会和经济挑战，在气候变化的影响下，这种情况可能会恶化。对于本研究，建议对该地区进行2040展望年的适应性分析。集成了两个模型，分别是水评估和规划模型（WEAP（斯德哥尔摩环境学院，瑞典斯德哥尔摩））和低排放分析平台（LEAP（斯德哥尔摩环境研究所，美国波士顿，美国）），以模拟水，能源的变化，食品和环境这20年。使用多标准决策分析（MCDA）方法将两种气候情景和九种政策情景组合在一起，以评估可持续发展。结果表明，通过在农业，饮用水，能源和工业领域追求具有挑战性的目标，将实现可持续发展。在这种情况下，乌尔米亚湖水位将在2040年达到其生态水位。但是，社会，技术和政治挑战被视为实现该目标的障碍。此外，产业增长和产业结构调整对可持续发展成就的影响最大。可持续发展将实现。在这种情况下，乌尔米亚湖水位将在2040年达到其生态水位。但是，社会，技术和政治挑战被视为实现该目标的障碍。此外，产业增长和产业结构调整对可持续发展成就的影响最大。可持续发展将实现。在这种情况下，乌尔米亚湖水位将在2040年达到其生态水位。但是，社会，技术和政治挑战被视为实现该目标的障碍。此外，产业增长和产业结构调整对可持续发展成就的影响最大。