We examine the effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax that took effect in Oakland, California in 2017. Using rich customized universal product code -level data, we estimate the effect of the SSB tax on prices and volume in the short to medium term in a difference-in-differences framework. We pay particular attention to tax-avoidance strategies that may minimize the policy's intended effect including: (i) transfers to SSBs to the nontaxed border area (i.e., cross-border shopping), (ii) a move from high-priced per ounce single serve to their cheaper multipacks or larger format counterparts (i.e., format switching), and (iii) a move from high-priced beverages to less expensive ones within a category and format (i.e., brand switching). We find that the year-over-year tax pass-through is 49%. We find that volume sold of taxed beverages fell by 14%, but 46% of this decrease is offset with an increase in the border area. We also find evidence of substitution to lower-priced taxed beverages but no evidence of switching to cheaper formats. Finally, we find important dynamic effects with respect to tax pass-through, volume sold and cross-border shopping.

中文翻译：

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奥克兰 SSB 税对销售价格和数量的影响：对预期和非预期后果的研究

我们研究了 2017 年在加利福尼亚州奥克兰生效的含糖饮料 (SSB) 税的影响。使用丰富的定制通用产品代码级数据，我们估计了短期内 SSB 税对价格和数量的影响在差异中的差异框架中的中期。我们特别关注可能将政策预期影响降至最低的避税策略，包括：(i) 将 SSB 转移到免税边境地区（即跨境购物），(ii) 从高价每盎司单一服务于更便宜的多包装或更大规格的对应物（即规格转换），以及 (iii) 在一个类别和规格内从高价饮料转向更便宜的饮料（即品牌转换）。我们发现同比税收转嫁率为 49%。我们发现征税饮料的销量下降了 14%，但这一下降的 46% 被边境地区的增加所抵消。我们还发现了替代低价征税饮料的证据，但没有证据表明转向更便宜的形式。最后，我们发现了有关税收转嫁、销量和跨境购物的重要动态影响。