The rice industry plays an important role in the agricultural economy of Colombia and its success dependents largely on weather conditions. Rice farmers, policymakers and other stakeholders thus need to understand and manage the risks associated with climate variability, including those related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the most important source of variability affecting Colombian climates. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess the ENSO influence on the spatio-temporal variability of agro-climatic conditions (crop water requirements, dry and wet spells, and heatwaves) and rice yield across the central producing region of Colombia; and (2) identify the main agro-climatic factors driving crop yield variability. Results showed that rice irrigation water requirements under positive ENSO phases (El Niño) increased by up to 14% compared to the long-term average. These increases were associated with less total precipitation, more dry days and longer dry spells, together with a greater number of day-and-night heatwave episodes. During negative phases (La Niña), on the other hand, irrigation requirements decreased by 16% with respect to the long-term average due to longer and more frequent wet spells, and more total precipitation. Analyses of simulated yields indicated that El Niño years reduce crop yield in about 86% of the study region, while La Niña affects 62% of the region positively. The number of heat nights (i.e. nights with minimum temperature > 23°C) during the growing season was the most important agro-climatic factor causing yield losses during ENSO events. Our results represent an important step towards understanding the interaction between climate variability and rice production in Colombia, which is useful for improving climate risk management at local levels.

稻米业在哥伦比亚的农业经济中发挥着重要作用，其成功很大程度上取决于天气状况。因此，稻农，政策制定者和其他利益相关者需要了解和管理与气候多变性有关的风险，包括与厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）有关的风险，这是影响哥伦比亚气候的最重要的多变性来源。这项研究的目的是（1）评估ENSO对哥伦比亚中部产区农业气候条件（作物需水量，干湿季节和热浪）的时空变化和稻米产量的影响；（2）确定驱动农作物产量变化的主要农业气候因素。结果表明，与长期平均水平相比，正ENSO阶段（厄尔尼诺）下的水稻灌溉需水量增加了14％。这些增加与更少的总降水量，更多的干旱天和更长的干旱时间以及更多的昼夜热浪发作有关。另一方面，在负数期（拉尼娜），由于更长和更频繁的湿法降雨以及更多的总降水量，与长期平均水平相比，灌溉需求减少了16％。对模拟产量的分析表明，厄尔尼诺年份减少了该研究区域约86％的农作物产量，而拉尼娜对该区域的62％产生了积极影响。高温夜晚（即最低温度> 在生长季节，最重要的农业气候因素是在ENSO事件期间导致23％的温度损失）。我们的结果代表了了解哥伦比亚气候变化与水稻生产之间相互作用的重要一步，这对于改善地方一级的气候风险管理非常有用。