Water yield is a key ecosystem function, directly impacting the sustainable development of the basin economy and ecosystem. Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes are the main driving factors affecting water yield. In the context of global climate change, assessing the impacts of climate and LULC changes on water yield in the alpine regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is essential for formulating rational management and development strategies for water resources. On the basis of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, we simulated and analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and the impacts of LULC and climate changes on water yield from 2001 to 2019 in the upstream regions of the Shule River Basin (USRB) on the northeastern margin of the QTP. Three scenarios were designed in the InVEST model to clearly analyze the contributions of climate and LULC changes on the variation of water yield. The first scenario integrated climate and LULC change into the model according to the actual conditions. The second scenario was simulation without LULC change, and the third scenario was without climate change. The results showed that (1) the InVEST model had a good performance in estimating water yield (coefficient of determination (R²) = 0.986; root mean square error (RMSE) = 3.012, p < 0.05); (2) the water yield significantly increased in the temporal scale from 2001 to 2019, especially in the high altitude of the marginal regions (accounting for 32.01%), while the northwest regions significantly decreased and accounted for only 8.39% (p < 0.05); (3) the spatial distribution of water yield increased from the middle low-altitude regions to the marginal high-altitude regions; and (4) through the analysis of the three scenarios, the impact of climate change on water yield was 90.56%, while that of LULC change was only 9.44%. This study reveals that climate warming has a positive impact on water yield, which will provide valuable references for the integrated assessment and management of water resources in the Shule River Basin.

中文翻译：

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利用InVEST模型评估疏勒河流域上游地区气候和土地利用变化对产量的影响。

产量是生态系统的关键功能，直接影响流域经济和生态系统的可持续发展。气候和土地利用/土地覆被（LULC）的变化是影响水产量的主要驱动因素。在全球气候变化的背景下，评估气候和LULC变化对青藏高原高寒地区水产量的影响对于制定合理的水资源管理和发展战略至关重要。在生态系统服务与权衡综合评估（InVEST）模型的基础上，我们对疏勒河流域上游地区（USRB）2001年至2019年的时空变化以及LULC和气候变化对水产量的影响进行了模拟和分析。 ）位于QTP的东北边缘。在InVEST模型中设计了三种方案，以清楚地分析气候和LULC变化对水产量变化的贡献。第一种方案将气候和LULC根据实际条件集成到模型中。第二种情况是没有LULC改变的模拟，而第三种情况是没有气候变化。结果表明：（1）InVEST模型在估计水产量（测定系数（R ²）= 0.986；均方根误差（RMSE）= 3.012，p <0.05）; （2）在2001年至2019年的时间尺度上，水的产量显着增加，特别是在边缘地区的高海拔地区（占32.01％），而西北地区则显着下降，仅占8.39％（p<0.05）; （3）中低海拔地区到边缘高海拔地区的水分产量空间分布增加；（4）通过对这三种情景的分析，气候变化对水产量的影响为90.56％，而土地利用变化的变化仅为9.44％。这项研究表明，气候变暖对水的产量有积极的影响，这将为疏勒河流域水资源的综合评估和管理提供有价值的参考。