Climate change presents a particularly complex challenge in the context of flyway scale conservation of migratory bird species as it requires coordinated action by multiple countries along these species’ migratory routes. Coordinating conservation responses requires understanding the vulnerability of species and their habitats to climate change at the flyway scale throughout each species’ annual cycle. To contribute to such understanding, we used species distribution models to assess the exposure to climate change of waterbird species that are the focus of the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds (AEWA). We found that the species with the smallest proportion of their current range projected to be climatically suitable by 2050 (those whose distributions respond to changes in water availability but that do not perform synchronised migration) are dispersive species in the Afrotropical biogeographic realm, and migratory species in their breeding season, particularly Arctic breeding waders. These species also have the most limited availability of newly suitable areas. Projections for most other Palearctic migratory waterbird species suggest that losses of suitable areas in their current passage and wintering ranges may be largely offset by new areas becoming climatically suitable. The majority of migratory Palearctic waterbirds in the breeding season and Afrotropical waterbirds are widely dispersed with only a small proportion of their populations currently supported by ‘Critical Sites’ (i.e. sites that are either important for Globally Threatened Species or support 1% of the bioregional population of any waterbird species). This makes it unlikely that climate change adaptation measures focusing only on key sites will be sufficient to counter the predicted range losses. Therefore, climate change adaptation responses should also be implemented at the landscape scale for Afrotropical waterbirds and for breeding populations of Palearctic migrant waterbirds.

气候变化在迁徙鸟类迁徙路线规模保护的背景下提出了特别复杂的挑战，因为它需要沿这些物种迁徙路线的多个国家采取协调行动。协调保护响应需要了解物种及其栖息地在每个物种年度周期的飞行路线尺度上对气候变化的脆弱性。为了促进这种理解，我们使用物种分布模型来评估水鸟物种对气候变化的影响，这是《非洲-欧亚迁徙水鸟保护协定》（AEWA）的重点。我们发现，到 2050 年，其当前分布范围的最小比例预计适合气候的物种（其分布对水资源可用性的变化作出反应但不进行同步迁移的物种）是非洲热带生物地理领域中的分散物种，而迁徙物种在它们的繁殖季节，特别是北极繁殖涉禽。这些物种的新适宜区域也最有限。对大多数其他古北区迁徙水鸟物种的预测表明，在其当前通过和越冬范围内的合适区域的损失可能会在很大程度上被气候适宜的新区域所抵消。大多数在繁殖季节迁徙的古北冰洋水鸟和非洲热带水鸟广泛分散，目前只有一小部分种群得到“关键地点”的支持（即对全球受威胁物种很重要或支持 1% 的生物区域人口的地点任何水鸟物种）。这使得仅针对关键地点的气候变化适应措施不太可能足以应对预计的范围损失。因此，气候变化适应响应也应在非洲热带水鸟和古北冰洋迁徙水鸟繁殖种群的景观尺度上实施。对全球受威胁物种很重要或支持任何水鸟物种 1% 的生物区域种群的地点）。这使得仅针对关键地点的气候变化适应措施不太可能足以应对预计的范围损失。因此，气候变化适应响应也应在非洲热带水鸟和古北冰洋迁徙水鸟繁殖种群的景观尺度上实施。对全球受威胁物种很重要或支持任何水鸟物种 1% 的生物区域种群的地点）。这使得仅针对关键地点的气候变化适应措施不太可能足以应对预计的范围损失。因此，气候变化适应响应也应在非洲热带水鸟和古北冰洋迁徙水鸟繁殖种群的景观尺度上实施。