Abstract

The flood in Kashmir valley has a long history and is considered as recurrent phenomena, though the flood occurred in 2014 was extremely severe due to its extent, intensity and impact on mankind. To understand the variation of this precarious climatic condition, the long-term variability of precipitation over Kashmir valley was analysed over a period of 1901-2018 on an annual, seasonal, monthly, and weekly basis to investigate the pattern of precipitation and its linkage to flooding. The mean annual precipitation analysis exhibits only few (06) severe incidences (>1226mm). Sen’s slope estimation exhibited a statistically positive trend during winter season (0.458mm year⁻¹) as compared to rainy season (-0.661mm year⁻¹) at 5% level of significance. The major deficit (>-99%) in precipitation anomaly was recorded forming the September month as anomalous. September 2014 exceptionally confronted one incidence of sudden but continuous weekly high precipitation (>130mm) with intensity of 22.82 mm day⁻¹ during 15 years.

摘要

克什米尔山谷的洪水历史悠久，被认为是经常性的现象，尽管2014年发生的洪水由于其程度，强度和对人类的影响而极为严重。为了了解这种不稳定的气候条件的变化，我们分析了克什米尔河谷在1901-2018年期间的年，季，月，周的长期降水变化，以研究降水的模式及其与降水的联系。洪水。年平均降水量分析显示只有极少数（06）严重事件（> 1226mm）。在冬季（0.458毫米年森的斜率估计显示出统计学积极趋势^-1相比，雨季（-0.661mm一年）^-1）的显着性水平为5％。降水异常的主要缺陷（> -99％）被记录为九月月份的异常现象。2014年9月，在15年中，一次突发但连续的每周高降水量（> 130mm）强度为22.82 mm day ^-1。