This study tests whether international reserve accumulation is inflationary because of moral hazard and incentive effects. We use the 2009 allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as a natural experiment to trace the effect of an exogenous nonmonetary shock on International Monetary Fund members' reserve holdings. In countries that received large SDR allocations, inflation was about half a percentage point higher in the 2 years following the allocation, controlling for other standard determinants. This effect is commensurate with the size of these countries' discretionary fiscal deficits. This result is consistent with the hypothesis that reserve accumulation may be inflationary because of incentive effects.

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储备积累、通货膨胀和道德风险：来自自然实验的证据

本研究检验国际储备积累是否因道德风险和激励效应而导致通货膨胀。我们使用 2009 年特别提款权 (SDR) 的分配作为自然实验来追踪外源性非货币冲击对国际货币基金组织成员储备持有量的影响。在获得大量特别提款权分配的国家中，在控制其他标准决定因素的情况下，分配后 2 年的通货膨胀率高出约 0.5 个百分点。这种影响与这些国家可自由支配的财政赤字规模相称。这一结果与储备积累可能由于激励效应而导致通货膨胀的假设一致。