The COVID-19 pandemic took the world by surprise and surpassed the expectations of epidemiologists, governments, medical experts, and the scientific community as a whole. The majority of epidemiological models failed to capture the non-linear trend of the susceptible compartment and were unable to model this pandemic accurately. This study presents a variant of the well-known SEIRD model to account for social awareness measures, variable death rate, and the presence of asymptomatic infected individuals. The proposed SEAIRDQ model accounts for the transition of individuals between the susceptible and social awareness compartments. We tested our model against the reported cumulative infection and death data for different states in the US and observed over 98.8% accuracy. Results of this study give new insights into the prevailing reproduction number and herd immunity across the US.

COVID-19 大流行震惊了世界，超出了流行病学家、政府、医学专家和整个科学界的预期。大多数流行病学模型未能捕捉到易感区的非线性趋势，无法准确模拟这种流行病。本研究提出了著名的 SEIRD 模型的一个变体，以考虑社会意识措施、可变死亡率和无症状感染者的存在。拟议的 SEAIRDQ 模型解释了个体在易感和社会意识隔间之间的转变。我们根据美国不同州报告的累积感染和死亡数据测试了我们的模型，观察到超过 98.8% 的准确率。