An alternative approach that is particularly suitable for the radiation health risk assessment (HRA) of astronauts is presented. The quantity, Radiation Attributed Decrease of Survival (RADS), representing the cumulative decrease in the unknown survival curve at a certain attained age, due to the radiation exposure at an earlier age, forms the basis for this alternative approach. Results are provided for all solid cancer plus leukemia incidence RADS from estimated doses from theoretical radiation exposures accumulated during long-term missions to the Moon or Mars. For example, it is shown that a 1000-day Mars exploration mission with a hypothetical mission effective dose of 1.07 Sv at typical astronaut ages around 40 years old, will result in the probability of surviving free of all types of solid cancer and leukemia until retirement age (65 years) being reduced by 4.2% (95% CI 3.2; 5.3) for males and 5.8% (95% CI 4.8; 7.0) for females. RADS dose–responses are given, for the outcomes for incidence of all solid cancer, leukemia, lung and female breast cancer. Results showing how RADS varies with age at exposure, attained age and other factors are also presented. The advantages of this alternative approach, over currently applied methodologies for the long-term radiation protection of astronauts after mission exposures, are presented with example calculations applicable to European astronaut occupational HRA. Some tentative suggestions for new types of occupational risk limits for space missions are given while acknowledging that the setting of astronaut radiation-related risk limits will ultimately be decided by the Space Agencies. Suggestions are provided for further work which builds on and extends this new HRA approach, e.g., by eventually including non-cancer effects and detailed space dosimetry.

介绍了一种特别适用于宇航员辐射健康风险评估 (HRA) 的替代方法。辐射归因的存活率下降 (RADS) 数量表示由于较早年龄的辐射暴露导致未知生存曲线在某个达到的年龄的累积下降，构成了这种替代方法的基础。提供了所有实体癌和白血病发病率 RADS 的结果，这些结果来自对月球或火星的长期任务期间累积的理论辐射暴露的估计剂量。例如，显示了 1000 天的火星探索任务，假设任务有效剂量为 1.07 Sv，典型宇航员年龄在 40 岁左右，将导致男性在退休年龄（65 岁）之前没有罹患所有类型的实体癌和白血病的概率降低 4.2%（95% CI 3.2；5.3），男性降低 5.8%（95% CI 4.8；7.0）女性。对于所有实体癌、白血病、肺癌和女性乳腺癌的发病率结果，给出了 RADS 剂量反应。还提供了显示 RADS 如何随暴露年龄、达到的年龄和其他因素而变化的结果。通过适用于欧洲宇航员职业 HRA 的示例计算，介绍了这种替代方法的优势，而不是目前用于宇航员在任务暴露后长期辐射防护的应用方法。对太空任务的新型职业风险限制提出了一些初步建议，同时承认宇航员辐射相关风险限制的设置最终将由航天机构决定。为建立和扩展这种新的 HRA 方法的进一步工作提供了建议，例如，最终包括非癌症效应和详细的空间剂量学。