The effect of global climate change on agricultural fields has attracted worldwide attention from many scholars in recent years. Lots of research about the effect of climate change on physiological growth processes, water consumption and food production are crucial to ensure food security. Numerous crop-water models have been adapted to analyse the response of physiological growth and water requirement to meteorological factors, but reports differ in various regions. The variations in yield (Y) of early and late rice, growth season duration (SD) and climatic factors were investigated based on data collected in the Poyang Lake basin from 1987 to 2016. Furthermore, the variation in rice water requirement (ET) and its response to Y, SD and climatic factors were analysed. The results showed that the climatic factors varied insignificantly, while the mean (T_am), maximum (T_ah) and minimum (T_al) air temperatures increased significantly during early and late rice growth periods. SD increased insignificantly for early and late rice, and Y increased insignificantly for early rice and significantly for late rice. ET increased significantly from 1994 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2004 to 2014 for both early and late rice. Variation in SD, cumulative temperature (T_aa) and sunshine hours (h_s) mainly led to increased ET for early and late rice; variation in T_am, T_ah, relative humidity (RH) and Y led to reduced ET for early and late rice.

中文翻译：

---

近30年鄱阳湖流域水稻需水量变化及影响因素*

近年来，全球气候变化对农业领域的影响引起了全球众多学者的关注。大量关于气候变化对生理生长过程、水消耗和粮食生产影响的研究对于确保粮食安全至关重要。许多作物-水模型已被用于分析生理生长和需水量对气象因素的响应，但不同地区的报告有所不同。以鄱阳湖流域1987-2016年数据为基础，研究了早晚稻产量（Y ）、生长季节持续时间（SD）和气候因素的变化。此外，水稻需水量（ET）和它对Y的响应，分析了SD和气候因素。结果表明，气候因素变化不显着，而早、晚水稻生育期平均气温（T _am）、最高气温（T _ah）和最低气温（ T _{al ）显着升高。}早稻和晚稻的SD增加不显着，早稻的Y增加不显着，晚稻的Y增加显着。早稻和晚稻的 ET 从 1994 年到 2003 年显着增加，而从 2004 年到 2014 年显着下降。SD、累积温度（T _aa）和日照时数（h _{s ）的变化}) 主要导致早稻和晚稻 ET 增加；T _am、T _ah 、相对湿度 (RH) 和Y的变化导致早稻和晚稻的 ET 降低。