Abstract

We propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic preserving an optimal balance between the adequate description of a pandemic by SIR model and simplicity of practical estimates. As base model equations, we derive two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations with retarded time argument, applicable to any community (country, city, etc.).The presented examples of modeling the pandemic development depending on two parameters: the time of possible dissemination of infection by one virus carrier and the probability of contamination of a healthy population member in a contact with an infected one per unit time, e.g., a day, is in qualitative agreement with the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed model is compared with the SIR model.

中文翻译：

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简化的COVID-19大流行的SIR模型

摘要

我们提出了一个COVID-19大流行的数学模型，该模型可以在SIR模型对流行病的充分描述与实际估算的简便性之间保持最佳平衡。作为基础模型方程式，我们推导了带有时滞参数的两参数非线性一阶常微分方程，适用于任何社区（国家，城市等）。一种病毒载体可能传播的感染以及与单位时间内（例如每天）被感染者接触的健康人群感染的可能性与COVID-19大流行的动力学在质量上是一致的。将所提出的模型与SIR模型进行比较。