Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change, while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, dynamic energy budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed, and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm levels were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level, fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.

由于气候变化，地中海有鳍鱼类养殖面临越来越多的挑战，而潜在的适应性要求对出现的威胁和机遇进行有力的评估。本文提出了一种方法，用于研究气候驱动因素对希腊水产养殖业的影响，希腊水产养殖业是该行业的领导者，在地中海地区具有代表性。使用农场级别的方法，开发了欧洲鲈鱼和微薄鱼的动态能源预算模型，并使用环境强迫来模拟IPCC情景RCP45和RCP85下的生产和农场盈利能力的变化。考虑了温度和极端天气事件在个体和农场一级的影响，以及畜牧参数的影响，例如九个地区的放养时机，市场规模和农场位置（近海，近海）。模拟表明，就个体而言，鱼类可能会从未来的生长中受益于较暖的温度，从而更快地达到商业规模，而饲养参数可能对气候变化的影响与预计的变化一样大。但是，这种好处将在很大程度上被极端天气事件在人口一级的不利影响所抵消。此类事件在将来会更加频繁，并且根据人为它们分配的强度，它们可能导致生物量损失和农场利润损失，对行业的影响从温和到有害。总体而言，这些结果量化了重要水产养殖部门的一些潜在威胁，同时暗示了从新兴机会中受益的可能性。所以，