The capacity for aquaculture to provide an alternative source of fish and seafood to capture fisheries was once promoted as a tool to reduce demand for wild fish and thus tackle overfishing. To date, there is little evidence to suggest that aquaculture growth has successfully reduced fishing effort on wild populations. Recent theory on “blue transitions” suggests that displacement may only occur as aquaculture production surpasses that of capture operations. Yet, there has been no systematic attempt to understand whether aquaculture-driven fisheries displacement has occurred in countries where aquaculture is now the dominant production form. We investigate the role of aquaculture on fisheries landings in these “aquaculture-dominant” countries using national-level production, trade, consumption and socioeconomic data from 1980 to 2017. Importantly, we find that aquaculture growth is associated with fisheries decline in aquaculture-dominant countries, but the marginal effects of aquaculture have a far weaker influence on wild-caught landings than other promoting factors, such as fish consumption and trade. Further, our qualitative analysis of the state of wild fisheries in aquaculture-dominant nations suggests that overexploitation continues to be pervasive and that any minimal displacement effects from aquaculture are unlikely to have offset the environmental impacts imposed by the growing sector. The rise of aquaculture as an alternative production form can provide valuable insights for growing industries developing sustainable new foods. Unless coupled with effective food consumption policy, such products may simply add to rather than displace the environmental impacts of human food production.

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在水产养殖主导国家寻找蓝色转型

水产养殖为捕捞渔业提供替代鱼类和海产品来源的能力曾被宣传为减少对野生鱼类需求从而解决过度捕捞的工具。迄今为止，几乎没有证据表明水产养殖的发展成功地减少了对野生种群的捕捞努力。最近关于“蓝色过渡”的理论表明，只有在水产养殖产量超过捕捞作业时才会发生转移。然而，还没有系统地尝试了解在水产养殖现在是主要生产形式的国家中是否发生了水产养殖驱动的渔业转移。我们使用 1980 年至 2017 年的国家级生产、贸易、消费和社会经济数据调查了水产养殖对这些“水产养殖主导”国家的渔业上岸量的作用。重要的是，我们发现水产养殖增长与水产养殖主导国家的渔业下降有关，但水产养殖的边际效应对野生捕捞上岸量的影响远小于其他促进因素，如鱼类消费和贸易。此外，我们对水产养殖主导国家野生渔业状况的定性分析表明，过度捕捞继续普遍存在，水产养殖产生的任何最小位移影响都不可能抵消不断增长的部门对环境造成的影响。水产养殖作为一种替代生产形式的兴起可以为发展可持续新食品的行业提供宝贵的见解。除非加上有效的食品消费政策，