Recent studies report that technological developments in machine learning and artificial intelligence present a significant risk to jobs in advanced countries. We re-estimate automation risk at the job level, finding sectoral employment structure to be key in determining automation risk at the country level. At the country level, we find a negative relationship between automation risk and labour productivity. We then analyse the role of trade as a factor leading to structural changes and consider the relation between trade and aggregate automation risk by comparing automation risk between a hypothetical autarky and the actual situation. Results indicate that with trade, automation risk is higher in Europe, although moderately so. Automation risk in the high-productivity European countries is higher with trade, with trade between European and non-European nations driving these results. This implies that these countries do not, on balance, offshore automation risk, but rather import it. The sectors that show the largest automation risk relation to trade are manufacturing, trade, transport and finance.

最近的研究报告指出，机器学习和人工智能技术的发展给发达国家的工作带来了巨大的风险。我们重新评估工作一级的自动化风险，发现部门就业结构对于确定国家一级的自动化风险至关重要。在国家一级，我们发现自动化风险与劳动生产率之间存在负相关关系。然后，我们通过分析假设的自给自足与实际情况之间的自动化风险，分析了贸易作为导致结构变化的因素的作用，并考虑了贸易与总体自动化风险之间的关系。结果表明，在贸易方面，欧洲的自动化风险较高，尽管适度。欧洲高生产率国家的自动化风险随着贸易的增长而增加，欧洲和非欧洲国家之间的贸易推动了这些结果。这意味着这些国家总的来说并不会承担离岸自动化风险，而要承担进口风险。与贸易相关的自动化风险最大的领域是制造业，贸易，运输和金融。