A wave forecast numerical simulation was performed for Typhoon Lingling around the Korean Peninsula and in the East Asia region using sea winds from 24 members produced by the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG) of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Significant wave height was observed by the ocean data buoys used to verify data of the ensemble wave model, and the results of the ensemble members were analyzed through probability verification. The forecast performance for the significant wave height improved by approximately 18% in the root mean square error in the three-day lead time compared to that of the deterministic model, and the difference in performance was particularly distinct towards mid-to-late lead times. The ensemble spread was relatively appropriate, even in the longer lead time, and each ensemble model runs were all stable. As a result of the probability verification, information on the uncertainty that could not be provided in the deterministic model could be obtained. It was found that all the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.9 or above, demonstrating good predictive performance, and the ensemble wave model is expected to be useful in identifying and determining hazardous weather conditions.

中文翻译：

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基于集合预报波模型的风浪数值模拟：以台风玲玲为例

利用朝鲜气象局全球综合预报系统（EPSG）产生的24个成员的海风，对朝鲜半岛周围和东亚地区的台风玲玲进行了波浪预报数值模拟。通过用于验证集合波模型数据的海洋数据浮标观察到了显着的波高，并通过概率验证对集合成员的结果进行了分析。与确定性模型相比，在三天的交货时间内，显着波高的预测性能提高了约18％的均方根误差，并且性能差异在交货中到后期尤为明显。即使在更长的交货时间中，整体传播还是相对合适的，而且每个合奏模型的运行都是稳定的。作为概率验证的结果，可以获得在确定性模型中无法提供的不确定性信息。发现所有相对运行特性（ROC）曲线均在0.9或以上，表明具有良好的预测性能，并且合奏波模型有望用于识别和确定危险的天气状况。